Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
